The political momentum has definitely turned against a unified Europe. Exhibit #1 is the referendum in Scotland:
Travelers to Scotland, beware. In buses, pubs and street rallies, people have only one thing on their mind these days: Scottish independence. They wear bumper stickers with “Yes” or “No thanks”, dye their hair white and blue, sing folk songs and hand out leaflets. Posters are everywhere. For the yes camp, it is about a nation going its own way, breaking away from a political elite in Westminister. To “naysayers”, it is a foolish decision instigated by populists, that will ruin two nations for generations to come. Both camps are virtually equal, with pollsters saying the referendum on Thursday (18 September) can go either way. The referendum will also have an impact on other independence-minded regions in the EU, such as Catalonia in Spain and Flanders in Belgium. Scotland will set a precedent for how Brussels deals with territories breaking off from an EU member state.
Alas, Exhibit #2, the independence movement in Catalonia:
Around 1.8 million Catalans took to the streets of Barcelona on Thursday (12 September) calling for the right to vote on independence. The demonstration marks the beginning of a critical period in Barcelona-Madrid relations. Dressed in red and yellow – the national colours – people shouted “in-inde-indepedencia!” and “volem votar!” (we want to vote) while waving the Catalan independence flag. Almost a quarter of the 7.5 million Catalans celebrated Catalan National Day – La Diada – in the streets of Barcelona, according to the local police forces. The day commemorates Catalonia’s loss of independence in the War of the Spanish Succession in 1714, exactly 300 years ago. Earlier this year, the Catalan Parliament voted two-thirds in favour for a consultative referendum to be held on 9 November, asking the Catalans “whether Catalonia is a state” and “if yes, whether that state should be independent”. The central government in Madrid, however, has said that it has ”all the mechanisms in place” to prevent such a vote.
Catalonia is the most prosperous region in Spain, having paid a big price for the country’s ill-designed austerity measures. It would be foolish of the Madrid government to try to suppress the Catalonian independence movement. A much better way forward is to recognize the undercurrent of anti-EU sentiments that also fuel this independence movement. The harsh austerity policies over the past couple of years where imposed on Spain by Brussels; if Spain was independent of the EU or at least had the backbone to stand up to their mad policy ideas the Catalonians would have much less of a reason to want to secede.
Anti-EU sentiments also played a major role in Sweden, our Exhibit #3. Last Sunday’s election sent nationalist Swedish Democrats skyrocketing to a position as the nation’s third largest party. In addition to their criticism of the current immigration policies in Sweden, the SD party is the only outspoken party against Swedish EU membership. They loosely resemble other EU-critical parties, such as Exhibit #4 in Germany:
Germany’s anti-euro party Alternative for Germany (AfD) got a further boost on Sunday (14 September) entering two more state parliaments following regional votes. “We are a party that is renewing the political landscape in Germany where people turn their back to traditional parties that have lost their profile,” said AfD party head Bernd Lucke. “One can’t deny it anymore: the citizens are thirsting for political change,” he added. Preliminary results suggest the right-wing party secured around 10.6 percent of the vote in Thuringia state and 12.2 percent in Brandenburg. The two states are traditionally seen as a power base of support for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats. Founded 19 months ago, the AfD manifesto calls for a scrapping of the euro in favour of the German Deutsche Mark. The eurosceptic party has strongly criticised the eurozone bailouts and opposes the concentrated power base of the EU institutions in Brussels.
So long as the economic crisis continues it will be close to impossible for pro-EU politicians to gain back the momentum. And, as I have repeated ad nauseam, the crisis will not end until they structurally reform away the welfare state. Which, again, won’t happen.
The sad part of this is that the movements trying to roll back the EU for the most part want to do it to protect their national welfare states from EU-imposed austerity. The only real exception is UKIP which fundamentally is a libertarian party. But everywhere else the goal is to localize control over fiscal policy so that they can perpetuate their own version of the standard, redistributive welfare state.
In short: the way things are going now it is a safe bet that the EU will be history long before the European welfare state.