Back in college I had a friend who blamed a cut in Swedish government-provided student loans on Moammar Ghadaffi. It was a tongue-in-cheek exercise, of course, designed to prove that if you want to, you can make any argument credible so long as you can make people believe your chain of cause and effect.
For some reason, that idea is widespread in politics, only there it is taken with the utmost seriousness. Political leaders can make the most remarkable connections between otherwise totally unrelated events. This is particularly true in economics and policy. The latest example is the stubborn European recession and what it is blamed on. Reports the EU Observer:
The European Commission lowered its growth forecasts for the EU and the eurozone area, blaming the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and urging governments to do more to spur investments. According to the Autumn forecast growth in the EU is now expected to be 1.3 percent of GDP this year, compared to 1.6 percent projected in spring, while the eurozone economy is to grow by only 0.8 percent, compared to the earlier projection of 1.2 percent.
I have lost count of how many times that European forecasters have had to adjust their forecasts downward. Not to brag (actually, yes, to brag…) I have not changed my forecast at all since I formulated Europe’s current problem more than two years ago. That problem is a structurally unaffordable welfare state combined with policies that try to preserve the welfare state inside a tax base that is structurally incapable of paying for it. This structural imbalance keeps the economy in a state of stagnation for an indefinite future.
The EU’s adjusted outlook once again confirms that I am right. The EU Observer again:
For 2015, the outlook is also pessimistic: the EU economy is expected to grow by 1.5 percent (down from 2 percent predicted in spring) and the eurozone by 1.1 percent (compared to the spring forecast of 1.7 percent). EU “growth” commissioner Jyrki Katainen admitted that forecasts are difficult to trust, especially since all other international institutions publishing economic forecasts “have been more often wrong than right” because there are so many variables on growth, employment, and investments.
Oh dear, there is so much to factor in… Seriously – it is the job of the economist to separate what matters from what does not matter, and then make his forecasts for the former while not being distracted by the latter.
This kind of excuse would not pass for a serious contribution here in the United States. But the Europeans are also trying to blame their years-long, endless recession on new events. Another article in the EU Observer:
Germany is on the brink of recession after recording its weakest export levels for five years. Data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Thursday (9 October) indicated that exports slumped by 5.8 percent between July and August, the sharpest monthly fall since 2009, at the height of the financial crisis. Imports also fell by 1.3 percent, suggesting that German consumers are also losing faith in the country’s economy. In a statement, the statistics office blamed late-falling summer vacations in some German regions and the Ukraine crisis for the fall in exports and imports.
But of course, there is no problem with the high taxes in Germany, or the rising energy costs as they close their nuclear reactors and try to rely on windmills instead… As share of GDP, taxes in Germany have increased from 42.6 percent ten years ago to 44.5 percent in 2013. This places Germany 12th among the 28 EU member states, and just a hair below the 45.3-percent EU average. But being average does not cut it when times are tough, it is a buyer’s market and the consumers who can actually afford to buy things are far away from your own country’s borders.
And, as noted, exports no longer serve as the locomotive of the German economy. Berlin simply cannot continue to suppress domestic demand for budget-balancing and ill-conceived energy reform reasons.
Back to the story about Germany:
The dismal statistics are the latest sign that Germany is facing an economic slowdown. In August, the ZEW think-tank’s index of financial market confidence, a trusted indicator of German economic sentiment, hit its lowest level since December 2012. The fall was attributed to the weak eurozone and fears about the EU’s ongoing sanctions battle with Russia. According to Eurostat, the EU’s data office, Germany’s output fell by 0.2 percent between April and June, after expanding by 0.8 percent in the first three months of 2014.
So what is the prevailing advice for how to get out of this state of endless stagnation?
On Thursday, four of the country’s top economic institutes urged chancellor Angela Merkel to increase public spending in a bid to stoke the economic engine. “On the spending side, public spending should be increased in those areas which can potentially boost growth,” the IFO institute in Munich, DIW of Berlin, RWI of Essen and IWH of Halle said in a joint report.
How fortunate that four of Germany’s most prominent think tanks all agree with each other. One might wonder why they need four think tanks of they all agree on something so profoundly important as how to revive the economy. Not one of them expresses concern that Germany might need just a tiny bit more economic freedom. On that note, if they are going to expand government spending without running budget deficits – what is the point in taking money away from the private sector and dole it out again through government? Private-sector activity is going to be further depressed by higher taxes: either you take away from what they spend or you depress their cash-flow safety margins and force them to depress spending in order to restore those safety margins.
There are two reasons why Germany cannot grow without exports. The first is high taxes, which up until 2012 were higher than in Greece. The second is uncertainty about the future. German consumers and at least smaller entrepreneurs have adjusted their spending downward on a permanent basis, simply because they feel overall less confident and less optimistic about the future. As Keynes explained in Chapter 16 of his General Theory, a depression of economic confidence is not a temporary matter:
An act of individual saving means — so to speak — a decision not to have dinner to-day. But it does not necessitate a decision to have dinner or to buy a pair of boots a week hence or a year hence or to consume any specified thing at any specified date. Thus it depresses the business of preparing to-day’s dinner without stimulating the business of making ready for some future act of consumption. It is not a substitution of future consumption-demand for present consumption-demand, — it is a net diminution of such demand.
That downward adjustment in demand will become the new normal until consumers and entrepreneurs has a reason to become more optimistic about the future. Evidently, that is not happening in Germany.
Not in Greece either, by the way. From Euractiv:
Greece is “highly unlikely” to end its eurozone bailout programme without some new form of assistance that will require it to meet targets, a senior EU official said on Monday (3 November). “A completely clean exit is highly unlikely,” the official told reporters, on condition of anonymity. … The eurozone and IMF bailout support of €240 billion began in May 2010. Greece is in negotiation with EU institutions and the International Monetary Fund ahead of the expiry of its bailout package with the European Union on 31 December. … The official gave no details of what new aid might look like, but policymakers have said that the most likely tool is an Enhanced Conditions Credit Line, or ECCL, from the European Stability Mechanism. That means Greece would be under detailed surveillance from the European Commission, the EU executive, for the duration of the credit line. “There needs to be money available for drawing on,” the official said.
Money available for spending items that Greek taxpayers cannot afford. So long as those spending promises remain in place, Greece cannot regain its fiscal independence unless they massively raise taxes. That, in turn, would be like begging for an even deeper depression.
At least in the Greek case nobody is blaming the Klingon High Council for their bad economic situation. But unless the Europeans step up to the plate and take responsibility for their own economic failure, the entire continent will continue to dwell in the shadow realm between the economic wasteland and industrial poverty.